Maybank IB Raises 2025 TIV Forecast By 5%, EV & xEV Adoption By 1%

Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) has revised its total industry volume (TIV) forecast for 2025, raising it by 5% to 790,000 units from its previous estimate of 750,000 units in Dec 2024. This is still lower then Kenanga IB's 2025 TIV prediction of 805,000 units.  

This adjustment reflects sustained mass-market growth, driven by factors such as increased consumer spending and brands such as Proton, Perodua and Toyota being able to clear backlog orders.

In a recent research note, Maybank IB cited multiple factors influencing the automotive market. The wage hikes for civil servants in Dec 2024 and the minimum wage increase in Feb 2025 are expected to fuel mass-market category vehicle sales for brands such as Perodua and select Proton thanks to improved purchasing power.

However, the mass-premium segment (RM100,000 to RM200,000) will likely experience margin pressures due to intensified competition. Despite this challenge, the segment is still expected to contribute to overall TIV growth.

Meanwhile, the premium and luxury automotive markets are expected to struggle, impacted by the rising competitiveness of more affordable models offering equal levels of luxury features, particularly electric vehicles (EVs). Potential petrol subsidy rationalisation and the implementation of the high-value goods tax could further dampen demand in this segment.

Maybank IB also pointed out that aggressive EV pricing and an influx of new brands and models especially from China of late could divert consumer interest away from traditional premium vehicle offerings.

The bank projected that in 2025 battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV and xEV) adoption rates will reach 3% and 5%, up from 2024’s 2% and 4% thanks to new model launches and aggressive pricing strategies, particularly from completely built-up (CBU) offerings.

One reason for that according to Maybank IB is despite the rise in EV adoption, concerns persist regarding the slow rollout of public EV charging infrastructure. As of Feb 2025, only 3,354 chargers had been installed, well below the 10,000-unit target for 2025. To meet this goal, an average of 554 new chargers need to be deployed monthly.

Maybank IB also highlighted the implications of the government’s potential implementation of the Operating Margin Variance (OMV) mechanism in the calculation of exercise duties for completely knocked-down (CKD) vehicles. Under this system, the taxable value of CKD vehicles would include not only production costs but also sales and marketing related expenses.

If implemented, CKD car prices could rise by 10-30%, making locally assembled vehicles significantly more expensive when compared to CBU models. This will raise the question on why brands should bother to invest on localisation and CBU.